200 is wishful thinking I guess, but I definitely think 2 incidents are possible with that number of posts, as well as 10 incidents per the same post count.

jacobgrey wrote:I'm not sure how far you would need to go to be sure that you were getting accurate results, but I would certainly think in the multiples of tens of thousands of donut pop-up timings to compare against one another. It's not as much to do with the original percentage chance as to do with being able to rule out bias or flukes. Even if you were trying to measure something that had a 50% chance you would still need to do it a huge number of times in order to check your results.

Right. But... that's definitely possible to do.

Since I've already given Lord Wuffel 1,181 vegetables, that means I've posted that many times since the start of the event. If I actually keep track of donuts as well as posts, it would not be many months before the pattern would emerge.

just have to figure out a way to do it that does not seem overwhelmingly difficult.

Making a table should work, I believe.

You could go through all the effort to count your posts and donuts and figure out an average over time if that's what you wanted to do but I think you could also probably just ask Firn what the statistics are with donuts if you really wanted to know, i'm sure she would know and wouldn't mind telling you since it's not really a big secret if you can figure it out anyway with your own experimentation

Well, random in the sense that you'd not be able to count your posts and say, "oh, this is my fourteenth post, I should get a donut now", but certainly for instance, while Fairy items are also random, we KNOW they are more rare than donut rewards. So it's random within parameters.... the trick now is how difficult it would be to discover the parameters.

(Say, every time you post it rolls randomly and you have a 1 in 25 chance of getting donuts. Or maybe it's 1 in 5. Or 1 in 185. I don't know.... none of us do right now. For sure fairies are a lot lower in whatever the chance is, though.... that'd be by page view, not post, but still. It has to be something like 1 in every 250k or something huge like that! You see? Random, but.... within parameters.)

cause the fairies are mean B's XD