Page 654 of 1663

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 27th, '18, 19:39
by memoriam
200 is wishful thinking I guess, but I definitely think 2 incidents are possible with that number of posts, as well as 10 incidents per the same post count.

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 27th, '18, 22:22
by jacobgrey
I'm not sure how far you would need to go to be sure that you were getting accurate results, but I would certainly think in the multiples of tens of thousands of donut pop-up timings to compare against one another. It's not as much to do with the original percentage chance as to do with being able to rule out bias or flukes. Even if you were trying to measure something that had a 50% chance you would still need to do it a huge number of times in order to check your results.

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 27th, '18, 22:30
by Akili Li
jacobgrey wrote:I'm not sure how far you would need to go to be sure that you were getting accurate results, but I would certainly think in the multiples of tens of thousands of donut pop-up timings to compare against one another. It's not as much to do with the original percentage chance as to do with being able to rule out bias or flukes. Even if you were trying to measure something that had a 50% chance you would still need to do it a huge number of times in order to check your results.
Right. But... that's definitely possible to do.

Since I've already given Lord Wuffel 1,181 vegetables, that means I've posted that many times since the start of the event. If I actually keep track of donuts as well as posts, it would not be many months before the pattern would emerge.

just have to figure out a way to do it that does not seem overwhelmingly difficult.

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 27th, '18, 22:54
by jacobgrey
It's certainly possible, I just don't know if the result is worth it XD

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 27th, '18, 23:24
by memoriam
Making a table should work, I believe.

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 28th, '18, 03:35
by Ghost
You could go through all the effort to count your posts and donuts and figure out an average over time if that's what you wanted to do but I think you could also probably just ask Firn what the statistics are with donuts if you really wanted to know, i'm sure she would know and wouldn't mind telling you since it's not really a big secret if you can figure it out anyway with your own experimentation :mclaugh:

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 28th, '18, 04:35
by Ms_Zuralli
Nothing for nothing, but isn't receiving donuts during caravan downtime the same, in essence, as bingo or the lottery or something within those parameters? It doesn't really feel like there is a set amount you have to post before being gifted donuts or daycare coupons, it really does feel random.

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 28th, '18, 04:52
by Akili Li
Well, random in the sense that you'd not be able to count your posts and say, "oh, this is my fourteenth post, I should get a donut now", but certainly for instance, while Fairy items are also random, we KNOW they are more rare than donut rewards. So it's random within parameters.... the trick now is how difficult it would be to discover the parameters.

(Say, every time you post it rolls randomly and you have a 1 in 25 chance of getting donuts. Or maybe it's 1 in 5. Or 1 in 185. I don't know.... none of us do right now. For sure fairies are a lot lower in whatever the chance is, though.... that'd be by page view, not post, but still. It has to be something like 1 in every 250k or something huge like that! You see? Random, but.... within parameters.)

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 28th, '18, 15:51
by jacobgrey
I imagine fairies must be about one in 300 million from how it feels like :'D damn you fairies, why do you never visit?

Re: Candy Caravan Chat

Posted: Oct 28th, '18, 16:31
by memoriam
cause the fairies are mean B's XD